Generative, pre-trained transformers (GPTs, a type of Foundation Models) have reshaped natural language processing (NLP) through their versatility in diverse downstream tasks. However, their potential extends far beyond NLP. This paper provides a software utility to help realize this potential, extending the applicability of GPTs to continuous-time sequences of complex events with internal dependencies, such as medical record datasets. Despite their potential, the adoption of foundation models in these domains has been hampered by the lack of suitable tools for model construction and evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce Event Stream GPT (ESGPT), an open-source library designed to streamline the end-to-end process for building GPTs for continuous-time event sequences. ESGPT allows users to (1) build flexible, foundation-model scale input datasets by specifying only a minimal configuration file, (2) leverage a Hugging Face compatible modeling API for GPTs over this modality that incorporates intra-event causal dependency structures and autoregressive generation capabilities, and (3) evaluate models via standardized processes that can assess few and even zero-shot performance of pre-trained models on user-specified fine-tuning tasks.

Current machine learning models excel in short-span perception tasks but struggle to derive high-level insights from long-term observation, a capability central to understanding complex events (CEs). CEs, defined as sequences of short-term atomic events (AEs) governed by spatiotemporal rules, are challenging to detect online due to the need to extract meaningful patterns from long and noisy sensor data while ignoring irrelevant events. We hypothesize that state-based methods are well-suited for CE detection, as they capture event progression through state transitions without requiring long-term memory. Baseline experiments validate this, demonstrating that the state-space model Mamba outperforms existing architectures. However, Mamba's reliance on extensive labeled data, which are difficult to obtain, motivates our second hypothesis: decoupling CE rule learning from noisy sensor data can reduce data requirements. To address this, we propose NARCE, a framework that combines Neural Algorithmic Reasoning (NAR) to split the task into two components: (i) learning CE rules independently of sensor data using synthetic concept traces generated by LLMs and (ii) mapping sensor inputs to these rules via an adapter. Our results show that NARCE outperforms baselines in accuracy, generalization to unseen and longer sensor data, and data efficiency, significantly reducing annotation costs while advancing robust CE detection.

Generative, pre-trained transformers (GPTs, a type of "Foundation Models") have reshaped natural language processing (NLP) through their versatility in diverse downstream tasks. However, their potential extends far beyond NLP. This paper provides a software utility to help realize this potential, extending the applicability of GPTs to continuous-time sequences of complex events with internal dependencies, such as medical record datasets. Despite their potential, the adoption of foundation models in these domains has been hampered by the lack of suitable tools for model construction and evaluation. To bridge this gap, we introduce Event Stream GPT (ESGPT), an open-source library designed to streamline the end-to-end process for building GPTs for continuous-time event sequences. ESGPT allows users to (1) build flexible, foundation-model scale input datasets by specifying only a minimal configuration file, (2) leverage a Hugging Face compatible modeling API for GPTs over this modality that incorporates intra-event causal dependency structures and autoregressive generation capabilities, and (3) evaluate models via standardized processes that can assess few and even zero-shot performance of pre-trained models on user-specified fine-tuning tasks.

Complex events originate from other primitive events combined according to defined patterns and rules. Instead of using specialists' manual work to compose the model rules, we use machine learning (ML) to self-define these patterns and regulations based on incoming input data to produce the desired complex event. Complex events processing (CEP) uncertainty is critical for embedded and safety-critical systems. This paper exemplifies how we can measure uncertainty for the perception and prediction of events, encompassing embedded systems that can also be critical to safety. Then, we propose an approach (ML\_CP) incorporating ML and sensitivity analysis that verifies how the output varies according to each input parameter. Furthermore, our model also measures the uncertainty associated with the predicted complex event. Therefore, we use conformal prediction to build prediction intervals, as the model itself has uncertainties, and the data has noise. Also, we tested our approach with classification (binary and multi-level) and regression problems test cases. Finally, we present and discuss our results, which are very promising within our field of research and work.

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated great potential in various data mining tasks, such as knowledge question answering, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning. However, the reasoning capability of LLMs on temporal event forecasting has been under-explored. To systematically investigate their abilities in temporal event forecasting, we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of LLM-based methods for temporal event forecasting. Due to the lack of a high-quality dataset that involves both graph and textual data, we first construct a benchmark dataset, named MidEast-TE-mini. Based on this dataset, we design a series of baseline methods, characterized by various input formats and retrieval augmented generation(RAG) modules. From extensive experiments, we find that directly integrating raw texts into the input of LLMs does not enhance zero-shot extrapolation performance. In contrast, incorporating raw texts in specific complex events and fine-tuning LLMs significantly improves performance. Moreover, enhanced with retrieval modules, LLM can effectively capture temporal relational patterns hidden in historical events. Meanwhile, issues such as popularity bias and the long-tail problem still persist in LLMs, particularly in the RAG-based method. These findings not only deepen our understanding of LLM-based event forecasting methods but also highlight several promising research directions.We consider that this comprehensive evaluation, along with the identified research opportunities, will significantly contribute to future research on temporal event forecasting through LLMs.

Our world is shaped by events of various complexity. This includes both small-scale local events like local farmer markets and large complex events like political and military conflicts. The latter are typically not observed directly but through the lenses of intermediaries like newspapers or social media. In other words, we do not witness the unfolding of such events directly but are confronted with narratives surrounding them. Such narratives capture different aspects of a complex event and may also differ with respect to the narrator. Thus, they provide a rich semantics concerning real-world events. In this paper, we show how narratives concerning complex events can be constructed and utilized. We provide a formal representation of narratives based on recursive nodes to represent multiple levels of detail and discuss how narratives can be bound to event-centric knowledge graphs. Additionally, we provide an algorithm based on incremental prompting techniques that mines such narratives from texts to account for different perspectives on complex events. Finally, we show the effectiveness and future research directions in a proof of concept.

Robots and autonomous systems require an understanding of complex events (CEs) from sensor data to interact with their environments and humans effectively. Traditional end-to-end neural architectures, despite processing sensor data efficiently, struggle with long-duration events due to limited context sizes and reasoning capabilities. Recent advances in neuro-symbolic methods, which integrate neural and symbolic models leveraging human knowledge, promise improved performance with less data. This study addresses the gap in understanding these approaches' effectiveness in complex event detection (CED), especially in temporal reasoning. We investigate neural and neuro-symbolic architectures' performance in a multimodal CED task, analyzing IMU and acoustic data streams to recognize CE patterns. Our methodology includes (i) end-to-end neural architectures for direct CE detection from sensor embeddings, (ii) two-stage concept-based neural models mapping sensor embeddings to atomic events (AEs) before CE detection, and (iii) a neuro-symbolic approach using a symbolic finite-state machine for CE detection from AEs. Empirically, the neuro-symbolic architecture significantly surpasses purely neural models, demonstrating superior performance in CE recognition, even with extensive training data and ample temporal context for neural approaches.

In this paper, we present RESIN-EDITOR, an interactive event graph visualizer and editor designed for analyzing complex events. Our RESIN-EDITOR system allows users to render and freely edit hierarchical event graphs extracted from multimedia and multi-document news clusters with guidance from human-curated event schemas. RESIN-EDITOR's unique features include hierarchical graph visualization, comprehensive source tracing, and interactive user editing, which is more powerful and versatile than existing Information Extraction (IE) visualization tools. In our evaluation of RESIN-EDITOR, we demonstrate ways in which our tool is effective in understanding complex events and enhancing system performance. The source code, a video demonstration, and a live website for RESIN-EDITOR have been made publicly available.

Temporal event forecasting aims to predict what will happen next given the observed events in history. Previous formulations of temporal event are unstructured, atomic, or lacking full temporal information, thus largely restricting the representation quality and forecasting ability of temporal events. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel formulation for Structured, Complex, and Time-complete Temporal Event (SCTc-TE). Based on this new formulation, we develop a simple and fully automated pipeline for constructing such SCTc-TEs from a large amount of news articles. Furthermore, we propose a novel model that leverages both Local and Global contexts for SCTc-TE forecasting, named LoGo. To evaluate our model, we construct two large-scale datasets named MidEast-TE and GDELT-TE. Extensive evaluations demonstrate the advantages of our datasets in multiple aspects, while experimental results justify the effectiveness of our forecasting model LoGo. We release the code and dataset via https://github.com/yecchen/GDELT-ComplexEvent.

Event skeleton generation, aiming to induce an event schema skeleton graph with abstracted event nodes and their temporal relations from a set of event instance graphs, is a critical step in the temporal complex event schema induction task. Existing methods effectively address this task from a graph generation perspective but suffer from noise-sensitive and error accumulation, e.g., the inability to correct errors while generating schema. We, therefore, propose a novel Diffusion Event Graph Model~(DEGM) to address these issues. Our DEGM is the first workable diffusion model for event skeleton generation, where the embedding and rounding techniques with a custom edge-based loss are introduced to transform a discrete event graph into learnable latent representation. Furthermore, we propose a denoising training process to maintain the model's robustness. Consequently, DEGM derives the final schema, where error correction is guaranteed by iteratively refining the latent representation during the schema generation process. Experimental results on three IED bombing datasets demonstrate that our DEGM achieves better results than other state-of-the-art baselines. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/zhufq00/EventSkeletonGeneration.